Market update · Circular solar · End-of-life modules
End-of-life solar panels could unlock a US$20 billion materials market by 2050
IRENA expects discarded solar panels to exceed 25 million tonnes worldwide by 2050, representing more than 400GW of retired capacity. Recovering copper, aluminium, silver, silicon and glass could create an annual materials market worth more than US$20 billion.
SolTraCo market update · · 4 min readA major end-of-life stream is approaching
Under the International Renewable Energy Agency's 1.5°C scenario, discarded solar panels are expected to exceed 25 million tonnes worldwide by 2050. That volume corresponds to more than 400GW of decommissioned PV capacity.
IRENA estimates that transporting and processing this material would require at least 120,000 heavy-truck journeys and more than 150 medium-sized processing facilities. The figures show that end-of-life PV is becoming a material logistics and infrastructure market, not simply a future waste problem.
Recoverable materials carry substantial value
More than 90% of the materials in end-of-life solar panels can already be recovered with current technology. These materials include copper, aluminium, silver, silicon and glass, which can re-enter established commodity markets after suitable processing.
IRENA estimates the annual market value of recovered materials at US$6 billion in 2040, rising to more than US$20 billion in 2050. The opportunity therefore depends not only on recycling capacity, but also on efficient collection, transport, sorting and material-quality control.
Reuse and recycling need separate commercial routes
Panels removed during repowering or asset upgrades should not automatically be treated as waste. Modules that remain safe and functional may retain value through testing, repair and reuse, while damaged or technically unsuitable units require a controlled recycling route.
For owners and contractors, the commercial outcome depends on module condition, volumes, location, packing, transport distance, processing costs and the value of the recovered materials. Early classification is essential because reusable stock and genuine end-of-life material require different buyers, documentation and handling.
Policy is moving towards dedicated PV treatment
The European Union is working on recycling targets designed specifically for solar panels, separate from the broader electronic-waste framework. In the Netherlands, legislation now provides for a guarantee fund intended to cover future processing costs.
For SolTraCo, the market signal is clear: end-of-life planning should be included in repowering and asset-sale decisions from the start. Separating reusable modules from recycling material can reduce waste, improve logistics and preserve the highest achievable value for each part of the portfolio.
Sources
This update is an original SolTraCo synthesis of the linked industry sources. Reported facts and commercial interpretation are kept separate. It does not contain confidential deal information and is not investment, legal or technical advice.