Market update · Asia-Pacific
China Wafer Market Steady Amid Divergent Production Plans and Polysilicon Output Cuts
China's wafer prices remained stable during early October despite subdued market activity due to the Golden Week holiday. While wafer producers show mixed production strategies, polysilicon output is expected to decline in October following months of growth. Regulatory measures in the U.S. are impacting overseas demand for China-origin wafers.
SolTraCo market update · · 3 min readStable Wafer Prices and Market Activity
China's wafer market activity was subdued entering the early-October Golden Week holiday, with Free-On-Board (FOB) prices for N-type M10 and 210R wafers holding steady at $0.153 and $0.153 per piece respectively. Orders signed before the holiday saw largely unchanged prices, while downstream buyers increased procurement somewhat to support inventory destocking. Current wafer inventories are estimated at around 25 GW.
Despite the holiday lull, wafer producers have divergent production plans for the fourth quarter, with no consensus on production cuts similar to those emerging in the polysilicon market. Some manufacturers plan to increase output in October, anticipating stronger downstream installation demand toward year-end.
Polysilicon Output Cuts and Price Support
China's polysilicon output rose from 92,900 metric tons in June to an estimated 120,400 metric tons in September. However, the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 12.9% month-on-month decline to around 105,000 metric tons in October due to planned production cuts outweighing restarts.
One polysilicon manufacturer has indicated a strong willingness to support prices, citing new regulatory requirements that producers maintain offers at no less than full production costs. This, combined with anticipated production cuts, is expected to gradually move polysilicon prices toward production-cost levels.
Impact of U.S. Regulatory Measures on Overseas Demand
Overseas demand for China-origin wafers is expected to remain slow and cautious, pressured by a temporary final rule issued in late September by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. The rule restricts stockpiling of polysilicon and derivatives ahead of Section 232 import adjustments effective December 4.
Solar imports into the U.S. largely consisted of China-origin wafers, cells, and modules entering through circumvention channels involving smaller traders. The new rule is expected to significantly curb such imports, thereby reducing demand for China-origin wafers. Market participants anticipate continued demand for smaller-format M10 wafers, which dominate supply chains serving the U.S.
Sources
This update is an original SolTraCo synthesis of the linked industry sources. Reported facts and commercial interpretation are kept separate. It does not contain confidential deal information and is not investment, legal or technical advice.